Q1 2026 Hotel Investment Outlook

Cap rates compress, ADR steadies, the year ahead.

After eighteen months of bid-ask gridlock, the first six weeks of 2026 produced more select-service trades than all of Q4 2025. Cap rates have compressed roughly 50 bps off the 2024 peak in the categories where buyers can underwrite stable cash flow today, and the bid for resort and lifestyle assets has returned with conviction.