Matthews Hotel Index
MHI Q1 2026. Cap rates, ADR, RevPAR across 14 markets.
Cap rates compressed 25-50bps off the 2024 peak across Sun Belt select-service.
Q1 2026 marked the first full quarter of compressed bid-ask in two years. Sun Belt secondary markets continued to outperform primary metros on RevPAR recovery while pricing more aggressively on cap rate. Select-service is the most actively bid category by transaction count; resort and lifestyle is the tightest cap rate band by spread. Construction-loan freeze that lasted from late 2022 to early 2025 is now fully thawed for sponsors with track records, but supply pipeline remains constrained.
- Quarter
- Q1 2026
- Published
- Markets
- 14
- License
- CC-BY 4.0
Q1 2026 per-market data
| Market | Select-svc cap | Full-svc cap | Resort cap | ADR | RevPAR | Occ | YoY RevPAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin, TX | 7.50%-8.25% | 7.00%-8.00% | 6.50%-7.75% | $130-$220 | $95-$165 | 70% | +1.2% |
| Dallas, TX | 7.75%-8.50% | 7.00%-7.75% | n/a | $130-$180 | $90-$130 | 68% | +1.5% |
| Houston, TX | 7.75%-8.75% | 7.25%-8.25% | n/a | $105-$175 | $75-$125 | 67% | +0.8% |
| San Antonio, TX | 7.75%-8.50% | 6.75%-7.50% | n/a | $105-$165 | $78-$125 | 71% | +2.1% |
| Nashville, TN | 7.50%-8.25% | 6.75%-7.50% | n/a | $145-$215 | $110-$165 | 72% | +0.6% |
| Atlanta, GA | 8.00%-8.75% | 7.25%-8.00% | n/a | $120-$175 | $85-$130 | 68% | +1.0% |
| Charleston, SC | n/a | 6.50%-7.25% | 6.25%-7.00% | $165-$295 | $125-$220 | 73% | +2.5% |
| Savannah, GA | 7.75%-8.50% | 6.75%-7.50% | n/a | $145-$245 | $105-$180 | 71% | +1.6% |
| Charlotte, NC | 7.75%-8.50% | 7.25%-8.00% | n/a | $120-$175 | $90-$130 | 69% | +1.3% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 7.75%-8.50% | n/a | 6.50%-7.50% | $135-$285 | $100-$215 | 70% | +1.8% |
| Denver, CO | 8.00%-8.75% | 7.25%-8.00% | 6.50%-7.50% | $140-$245 | $100-$180 | 69% | +0.9% |
| Miami, FL | n/a | 6.50%-7.50% | 6.00%-7.25% | $195-$425 | $145-$320 | 72% | +1.4% |
| Tampa, FL | 7.50%-8.25% | 6.75%-7.75% | n/a | $135-$215 | $100-$165 | 71% | +1.7% |
| Orlando, FL | 7.75%-8.50% | 7.00%-7.75% | 6.50%-7.50% | $140-$285 | $105-$215 | 73% | +1.1% |
Cap rates: stabilized, PIP-current. ADR/RevPAR: blended chain-scale range across each metro. Occupancy: TTM blended.
Per-market read
Austin, TX
Austin compression continued, anchored by tech weekday demand and ACL/SXSW seasonal surge.
Full market profileDallas, TX
DFW corporate weekday demand held; Frisco and Plano sub-markets the most actively traded.
Full market profileHouston, TX
Houston Medical-Center-adjacent select-service trades 50bps tighter than metro average.
Full market profileSan Antonio, TX
Riverwalk full-service trades at the tightest cap in Texas outside Hill Country resort.
Full market profileNashville, TN
Nashville continues to lead the Sun Belt on group-driven RevPAR; supply pipeline absorbing slowly.
Full market profileAtlanta, GA
Atlanta airport hospitality cluster trades active; PE bid returning at scale.
Full market profileCharleston, SC
Charleston historic district resort/lifestyle trades at the tightest caps in the Sun Belt.
Full market profileSavannah, GA
Savannah leisure-anchored compression strongest at the boutique/full-service top end.
Full market profileCharlotte, NC
Charlotte CLT airport + financial-district demand both supporting RevPAR through 2026.
Full market profilePhoenix, AZ
Scottsdale/Paradise Valley resort cap rate compression leading the Mountain West.
Full market profileDenver, CO
Mountain West resort recap activity dominant; ski-market trades pricing tighter than urban Denver.
Full market profileMiami, FL
Miami Beach trophy assets remain the tightest urban full-service caps in the U.S.
Full market profileTampa, FL
Tampa Bay leisure-corporate hybrid demand profile the most resilient in Florida.
Full market profileOrlando, FL
Orlando theme-park-adjacent resort the most actively bid sub-segment in Q1 2026.
Full market profile
Methodology
Cap rate ranges reconcile the CBRE H2 2025 U.S. Cap Rate Survey with HVS U.S. Market Pulse Q1 2026 commentary and Matthews internal underwriting on active mandates. ADR, RevPAR, and occupancy bands aggregate STR press-release headline metrics with metro-level chain-scale sub-segment commentary. Transaction counts combine Matthews-executed transactions with publicly recorded transactions in each MSA. Ranges reflect stabilized, PIP-current product unless otherwise noted.
Q1 2026 is the most recent published quarter. The Q2 2026 edition was due July 15, 2026 and has not published, and Q3 2026 has since closed without an edition either, so every figure on this page is a Q1 2026 reading.
The debt side of the same market
The MHI prices the asset. The monthly hotel rate sheet prices the debt against it, and the Matthews Hotel Debt Index is a separate monthly series with its own rules. They are published side by side and never averaged: this dataset comes from public research, that one from quotes received. Sourced financing statistics are at /data/hotel-financing-statistics, and how cap rates behave is answered at what is a good cap rate for a hotel in 2026.
Sources
- CBRE H2 2025 U.S. Cap Rate Survey · CBRE Research
- HVS U.S. Market Pulse, April 2026 · HVS
- STR Weekly U.S. Hotel Performance · STR
- AHLA State of the Industry 2026 · American Hotel & Lodging Association
- JLL Global Hotel Investment Outlook 2026 · JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group
- Lodging Econometrics Q1 2026 Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report · Lodging Econometrics